On the final matchday of Serie A, Fiorentina host Atalanta. The home side sit 15th with 41 points and have already secured safety, with nothing left to play for; the visitors are 7th with 58 points and still have a chance of qualifying for Europe. On motivation alone, the visitors are far ahead. But the handicap market is sending a different signal. The opening Asian handicap for this match was level balls, and it remains level balls close to kick-off. Atalanta’s odds have risen from the 0.81-0.85 range to the higher 0.90-0.95 range. With Atalanta still needing points and Fiorentina already without a target, the visitors are somehow unable to be favored away from home, and their odds continue to drift upward. That is not a sign of confidence in Atalanta. Although Fiorentina are lower in the table, their home record against Atalanta is not poor — they have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 in their last 10 home meetings, with an unbeaten rate of 80%. They lost 2-0 away in the first half of the season, so they have motivation to get revenge at home. In terms of personnel, both sides are dealing with serious injuries. Fiorentina’s defense is short-handed, but Atalanta’s attacking unit in midfield and up front is also badly depleted, with key players such as Scamacca and Sulemana unavailable, hurting their attacking firepower. Overall, with the handicap at level balls and Atalanta’s odds rising, while the head-to-head record favors the home side at the Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina avoiding defeat looks the more likely outcome in this match. Asian handicap recommendation: Fiorentina level balls. Scoreline suggestions: 1-1, 2-1, 0-0.