Consider hypothetical records. In one sequence a team scores 3 goals and then 0; in another it scores 1 and then 2. Both average 1.5 goals per match. The first sequence includes a goal in 50% of its games, the other in 100%. These are invented examples, not figures for either side in the attached fixture. The average totals the goals and divides by matches; scoring frequency counts games with any goal. One statistic cannot be substituted for the other. Before reading an average as a match probability, ask what model and evidence connect them. Even a correctly calculated past frequency does not establish the chance in the next game. No side or goals line is recommended here.