My first question about a good run is who allowed it. Recent results describe what happened; they do not establish whether the same approach can work against another opponent. Space found against an open defence may disappear against a compact block. That is a tactical possibility, not a claim about either team in this fixture.
I separate the observed scorelines from the explanation. Opponent strength, venue and changes in personnel can test that explanation when reliable information exists. When those details are missing, I leave the gap visible rather than attach a confident win probability. Recent form starts the matchup question. It does not settle the answer, and it is never a reason to ignore the price.
