At 2.60, I need more than a 38.5% gross hit rate to clear the quote; that is a price test, not my forecast. The objection is scoring without winning: Independiente Petrolero lost despite scoring in 2 games, Aurora in 1. An attack finding the net is not enough to justify an outright-win claim. The recorded goals are 2 for and 12 against Independiente Petrolero, versus 8 for and 6 against Aurora. My selective lean is Aurora to win at 2.60. The value condition has to be strong enough to survive an explicit doubt. The short record and current price must point in the same direction. Five completed results cannot establish the next result or confirm the starting lineups. My view is conditional on the stated line and current evidence. I would rather pass on a weaker quote than turn a small five-game record into a stronger claim than it supports.