For this scoring profile, Over 2.25 goals at 1.95 is my read. The scoring record frames the total, but it cannot settle the match tempo. The ten separate team games average 3.0 total goals; the current 2.25 line is a separate match-specific market.
The recorded goals are 7 for and 7 against Athletic Club, versus 8 for and 8 against Londrina PR. The 1.95 quote implies a 51.3% break-even point before margin; the recorded results do not prove that rate.
The recorded goal counts do not establish match tempo or finishing quality. Finishing can depart sharply from the recent goal count.
