I'll take Bahia - BA +0.75 Asian handicap at 2.07. Here is the selection without a paywall. The selection is Bahia - BA at a +0.75 handicap, not a straight match win. Bahia - BA recorded 4 wins and 0 draws in five completed games; that short record is context for the spread, not a claim about the next result. Those results show 7 goals scored and 2 conceded for Palmeiras - SP, compared with 11 scored and 7 conceded for Bahia - BA. At decimal odds 2.07, the break-even threshold is about 48.3% before market margin; that number is a price hurdle, not a predicted win probability. The recent record is useful but small. Palmeiras - SP–Bahia - BA: a move in price changes the decision for me.