The goal line is the whole story here: Over 2 goals at 1.80. Here is the selection without a paywall. The ten separate recent team games averaged 2.7 total goals; the current 2 line sits below that descriptive average, which is context rather than a match forecast. Those results show 5 goals scored and 11 conceded for Arsenal Tivat, compared with 4 scored and 7 conceded for Decic Tuzi. The recorded scorelines for Arsenal Tivat, newest first, are 0-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-5, 1-2; for Decic Tuzi they are 1-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-2, 2-1. At decimal odds 1.80, the break-even threshold is about 55.6% before market margin; that number is a price hurdle, not a predicted win probability. I am judging the total-goals line here, not making a separate match-winner call. A single early goal or a slow first half can change the path to this total. Arsenal Tivat–Decic Tuzi: the recent games are context, not a guarantee.