I would judge 3.80 against its 26.3% price hurdle, while keeping the five-game sample separate. The objection is scoring without winning: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda lost despite scoring in 1 games, Hapoel Hadera in 0. An attack finding the net is not enough to justify an outright-win claim. The recorded goals are 6 for and 12 against Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, versus 7 for and 1 against Hapoel Hadera. The price gives me a reason to examine Hapoel Mahane Yehuda to win at 3.80. The value condition has to be strong enough to survive an explicit doubt. The short record and current price must point in the same direction. Five completed results cannot establish the next result or confirm the starting lineups. My view is conditional on the stated line and current evidence. I would rather pass on a weaker quote than turn a small five-game record into a stronger claim than it supports.