For this premium case, a full win at 2.00 returns 1.00 net units for one unit staked. Refunds and split stakes must be settled separately; a single hit-rate percentage would hide that distinction. I would reassess the recommendation if the quote or line changed, because the same short record cannot justify every possible price. Remove each attack’s largest scoring game as a sensitivity check: the remaining four contain 4 goals for Atletico Nacional Medellin and 1 for Deportivo Pasto. This is not a new forecast, but a check on dependence on one result. The recorded goals are 8 for and 4 against Atletico Nacional Medellin, versus 2 for and 4 against Deportivo Pasto. Newest-first completed scorelines: Atletico Nacional Medellin 0-1, 4-1, 0-0, 3-1, 1-1; Deportivo Pasto 0-1, 0-0, 0-3, 1-0, 1-0. These results are completed matches only; they do not independently verify starting lineups, injuries or a tactical plan for the upcoming game. The position I can defend is Under 2.75 goals at 2.00. The careful case needs both a supported record and a price boundary. The recorded goal counts do not establish match tempo or finishing quality. That limitation is material to the position.