I'm backing Club Atlético Progreso to win away at 5.00, but only for a small stake. In their five latest recorded Primera División matches, Progreso won four; Liverpool Montevideo won two, drew two and lost one. Progreso scored seven and conceded five, while Liverpool scored five and conceded five. That form gap gives me a reason to consider the outsider at this price. Five games are a narrow lens and do not adjust for opponent strength or the confirmed starting XI. If team news changes the balance, or the away price shortens sharply, I would reassess the value before kickoff.