I really think Tunisia +2.75 is a line worth taking a close look at. Let’s start with the Netherlands’ motivation. They currently have 4 points and sit top of the group. A draw here would be enough to finish first and advance safely, right? On top of that, coach Koeman has already said he won’t go all out with his strongest XI, so there will definitely be a fair amount of rotation. After all, there’s still the knockout stage ahead, and there’s no need to burn all their energy against an already eliminated opponent. Squad management and injury risk are what matter more to them. Then look at the Netherlands’ finishing efficiency. Sure, they scored 7 goals in the first two rounds, but their xG (expected goals) conversion rate hasn’t actually been that outrageous. In the warm-up matches, they needed 32 shots to score just 3 goals, so their ability to take chances really hasn’t been that stable. In addition, they leave a lot of space when transitioning from attack to defense; the first two opponents just failed to exploit it. As for Tunisia, they are definitely not a soft touch that can be beaten by three goals with ease. Although they conceded 9 goals in their first two matches, that was mainly due to the adjustment period after the coaching change and tactical reshuffle. Their three-centre-back system hasn’t fully gelled yet, and their defensive positioning and coordination still need work. Now that they’ve played two matches, Renard’s tactics should be much more familiar, and since this is also a match for pride, the players will definitely give everything they have. Their defensive focus should improve significantly. Also, this 2.75-goal handicap is really quite deep. The Netherlands need to win by at least 3 goals for a full cover. Even if they do have the stronger squad, with limited motivation and a rotated lineup, winning by 3 or more goals comfortably is really not that easy, is it? Of course, there is still risk. If the Netherlands come out flying and score two or three early, they could break through the line. But taking motivation, rotation, and the depth of the handicap into account, I believe Tunisia +2.75 has the higher probability of landing.