Ivory Coast are facing serious personnel problems for this match, with both first-choice center-backs Ndicka and Gossouan absent through injury, forcing a reshuffle of the defense. Against France’s powerful attacking line, Ivory Coast are bound to adopt a relatively conservative tactical approach, dropping deeper and compressing space to avoid conceding early. This kind of compact, counterattacking setup will greatly limit France’s attacking efficiency. Another factor is France’s recent under trend. Although France possess strong overall attacking power, six of their last 10 matches have gone under, with the over rate standing at just 40%. Against opponents with well-organized defenses, the team often needs a long time to break the deadlock. In recent friendlies and UEFA Nations League matches, France have repeatedly played out 1-0, 2-0, and 0-0 scorelines, showing that their attack does not always produce high-scoring games. The head-to-head record also supports the under. In the last three meetings between the two sides, France have remained unbeaten with two wins and one draw, but the total goals in none of those matches exceeded three. The scorelines were 2-1, 0-0, and 3-0, giving the under a 66.7% hit rate. In the two most recent meetings, France won 2-1 at home and drew 0-0, with neither match being particularly open. In terms of the Asian handicap, major bookmakers opened the total at 2.5/3 goals, but the live line has generally moved up to 3 goals. At the same time, the over odds have risen sharply from the low range of 0.74-0.80 to the mid-to-high range of 0.86-0.98. Raising the line while also lifting the odds significantly suggests that bookmakers are not more confident in the over; rather, their real intention points toward the under. With France’s recent high under rate as context, a 3-goal line presents a relatively high entry threshold for the over, and the elevated odds make it even less appealing. Overall, Ivory Coast’s reshuffled defense is likely to stay compact, France have shown a clear under trend recently, the head-to-head meetings have produced few goals, and the line movement with higher over odds signals weakness on the over side.