The objection is scoring without winning: Guastatoya lost despite scoring in 0 games, Deportivo Mixco in 0. An attack finding the net is not enough to justify an outright-win claim. At 4.50, I need more than a 22.2% gross hit rate to clear the quote; that is a price test, not my forecast. My selective lean is Deportivo Mixco to win at 4.50. The value condition has to be strong enough to survive an explicit doubt. The short record and current price must point in the same direction. The recorded goals are 6 for and 6 against Guastatoya, versus 10 for and 6 against Deportivo Mixco. Five completed results cannot establish the next result or confirm the starting lineups. I can favor the position and still reject a weaker price. I would rather pass on a weaker quote than turn a small five-game record into a stronger claim than it supports.