The objection is scoring without winning: Cucuta Deportivo lost despite scoring in 1 games, Atletico Nacional Medellin in 0. An attack finding the net is not enough to justify an outright-win claim. The 5.75 quote implies a 17.4% break-even point before margin; the recorded results do not prove that rate. I only consider Cucuta Deportivo to win at 5.75 because one condition holds. The value condition has to be strong enough to survive an explicit doubt. The short record and current price must point in the same direction. The recorded goals are 8 for and 6 against Cucuta Deportivo, versus 8 for and 5 against Atletico Nacional Medellin. Five completed results cannot establish the next result or confirm the starting lineups. I can favor the position and still reject a weaker price. I would rather pass on a weaker quote than turn a small five-game record into a stronger claim than it supports.