My deeper match read favors Over 2.75 goals at 2.07. The careful case needs both a supported record and a price boundary. At 2.07, I need more than a 48.3% gross hit rate to clear the quote; that is a price test, not my forecast. I would reassess the recommendation if the quote or line changed, because the same short record cannot justify every possible price. Across five completed games each, Shamrock Rovers are 2-2-1 and Bohemians are 5-0-0. That leaves a recorded win-count contrast of 3 across the two separate five-game samples; it is evidence to weigh, not a head-to-head result. Newest-first completed scorelines: Shamrock Rovers 3-1, 3-2, 0-2, 0-0, 3-3; Bohemians 2-1, 2-1, 3-2, 3-0, 5-3. These results are completed matches only; they do not independently verify starting lineups, injuries or a tactical plan for the upcoming game. The recorded goals are 9 for and 8 against Shamrock Rovers, versus 15 for and 7 against Bohemians. The recorded goal counts do not establish match tempo or finishing quality. The competition label alone does not establish either side’s intent.