The market thesis needs a clear price boundary. My premium selection for this match is Over 2.25 goals at 1.85. The ten separate recent team games averaged 3.1 total goals; the current 2.25 line sits below that descriptive average, which is context rather than a match forecast. Those results show 9 goals scored and 4 conceded for CD FAS, compared with 10 scored and 8 conceded for Alianza San Salvador. CD FAS have a 3-2-0 W-D-L record in the five completed games. At decimal odds 1.85, the break-even threshold is about 54.1% before market margin; that number is a price hurdle, not a predicted win probability. Alianza San Salvador have a 2-3-0 W-D-L record over their five completed games. The recorded scorelines for CD FAS, newest first, are 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2, 1-0; for Alianza San Salvador they are 2-2, 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-2. I want the selection, the supporting record and the price boundary to stand together. The recent sample gives a factual starting point, not certainty about the next match. CD FAS–Alianza San Salvador: i will revisit the selection if the current market changes materially.