In the opening line phase, many bookmakers priced the total at 2.5 goals, with the over odds concentrated in the 0.80 to 1.13 range, generally at a low-to-mid level. On the surface, it looked as if the books were somewhat wary of the over. However, as the match approached, the line saw a key collective adjustment upward. Almost all bookmakers moved from 2.5 goals to 2.5/3 goals. After the move, the over odds not only failed to drift lower, but were instead collectively pushed up from the initial low-to-mid range to a high range of 0.86 to 1.04. One bookmaker raised the line from 2.5 goals to 2.5/3 goals, while the over odds jumped from 0.96 to 1.04. Another moved from 2.5 goals to 2.5/3 goals, with the over odds climbing from 0.97 to 1.02. When an upward line move is paired with a sharp rise in over odds, it clearly points in one direction: the bookmakers are not strongly expecting the total number of goals to go beyond 2.5. Even more noteworthy are the bookmakers who held firm at 2.5 goals; their over odds were cut from 0.80 to 0.95 in the opening line to an ultra-low 0.65 to 0.70. On the surface, this shallow line with ultra-low odds looks favorable to the over, but in reality it is designed to attract money toward the over with extremely low prices, easing pressure on the under. The overall trajectory of these line movements reveals that the books are not truly overprotective of the over. The fundamentals also offer clues supporting the under. Brazil remained unbeaten in its first four World Cup matches, but its attacking efficiency has not been consistently stable. Attacking midfielder Paquetá and left winger Raphinha are both ruled out with hamstring injuries, which will clearly weaken the team’s creativity in the final third and its threat down the flanks. Norway’s first four World Cup matches all went over, but a closer look at the opposition tells a different story: they scored heavily against weaker teams such as Iraq and Senegal, but managed only one goal against France, casting doubt on their ability to break down stronger defenses. The knockout format, where a single match decides everything, means both sides will be more cautious, and neither will want to take risks with an early attacking approach. Taking together the line hike and odds inflation as a baiting signal, along with the inherently cautious nature of knockout football, the under deserves close attention.