Many bookmakers initially opened with Argentina favored by two goals, with the home side’s water level concentrated in the low-to-mid range of 0.85 to 0.94. As kickoff approached, the line was collectively adjusted upward, with most bookmakers moving from Argentina -2 to -2/-2.5. After the line moved up, the home side’s water level did not surge; instead, it remained firmly suppressed in the 0.80 to 1.08 range. One bookmaker dropped from -2.5 back to -2/-2.5, while the home side’s water level fell from 1.26 to 1.08. This line drop and water reduction shows that they are proactively lowering payout risk on the Argentina side. Other bookmakers stuck with the -2 line, further压ing the home side’s water level from the opening 0.87 to a low of 0.75 to 0.83. A deep handicap paired with low or even ultra-low water clearly points in one direction. On the fundamentals, Argentina’s advantage is overwhelming. They won all three group-stage matches, scored 8 goals and kept clean sheets in every game. Messi, Lautaro, Álvarez and the other attacking players are in excellent form, and the team has shown title-winning quality at both ends of the pitch. Cape Verde drew all three of their group-stage matches. Although holding Spain and Uruguay was better than expected, they scored just 2 goals in three games, showing limited threat in attack. Right winger Alcaraz is out injured, further reducing their sharpness on the counterattack. There is no previous head-to-head record between the two sides, but the gap in quality is enormous. Argentina have won their last 10 matches and covered the spread at a rate above 50 percent, so their ability to cover a deep line is quite reliable. Taking into account both the handicap depth and the difference in strength, Argentina should be expected to deliver.