I know, just the name Argentina alone is enough to make anyone take notice. But this match isn’t one you can judge just by the name on the sheet. Let me explain slowly. First of all, Argentina have already secured qualification. That’s crucial. What are they thinking about now? Not how many they have to win by in this game, but how to get to the next stage in good health. Rotation is definitely coming. The starters will get some rest, and the substitutes will come in to get a feel for things. It’s not that the backups aren’t good, but that overwhelming, from-start-to-finish dominance will be diluted. That’s only natural. Messi may not play, or he may play only a half. Di María too. Without those two, Argentina’s creativity in the final third drops a level. The tempo will be slower, and the press up front won’t be nearly as fierce. That’s good news for Jordan, who at least won’t be under constant pressure from start to finish. As for Jordan, this is not a match they expect to win, but it is absolutely a match they do not want to be humiliated in. Against the world champions, these players will be fully fired up. They’ll sit deep, pack the middle, and make sure you can’t thread through a decisive pass. That all-in defensive approach may well be enough to cope with Argentina’s second string. There’s another point. Jordan are physically solid. They defend aggressively, commit plenty of fouls, and the game is likely to be broken up into pieces. That works against a big scoreline and in favor of the underdog with the handicap. A messy rhythm is the kind of thing that saps a strong team’s patience. As the game goes on, Argentina may well think, never mind, a one- or two-goal win is enough; there’s no need to go all out. With a +2.25 handicap, Jordan lose only half if they go down by two, and only lose fully if they are beaten by three. After rotation, I don’t think Argentina will be in the mood to win by three or four. Winning by two is the ceiling, winning by one is the more likely outcome, and there’s even a chance they get caught and held to a draw. Of course, a draw is not very likely, but I think staying within two goals is a fairly real possibility.