Under Spain's possession-based system, they average 2.7 expected goals (xG) per game, have an 86% pass success rate in the final third, generate 72% of their xG from settled possession, and hold a low high-press PPDA of 8.9. Their transition play produces 0.8 xG per game, giving them a diverse and stable range of finishing methods; under Bielsa, Uruguay's high-intensity system delivers 1.9 xG per game, while their high press forces opponents into backline errors at a rate of 31%. Set-piece xG accounts for 35% of their output, and their wing-based attacks create 12.3 touches in the box per game. The combined baseline expected goals for both teams is already close to the 2.25 threshold, providing a strong statistical basis to clear the line. At the tactical level, there is a clear driver for openness: Uruguay need points to fight for control of qualification, so they are highly unlikely to sit deep and defend. Their likely choice of full-scale high pressing and proactive pushing forward will directly increase the number of attacking and defensive transition sequences. The space behind Uruguay's advanced line perfectly suits Spain's penetration-based style; meanwhile, Uruguay's front-line press will frequently disrupt Spain's midfield circulation, creating plenty of chaotic phases and transition opportunities. The density of clear scoring chances should be significantly higher than in a cautious game. The only variable is Spain potentially slowing the tempo and controlling the match after taking an early multi-goal lead, but Uruguay's urgency to get points should keep their attacking investment high, making it difficult for overall goal output to be fully suppressed. Based on the model projection, total goals in this match are expected to go over 2.25.