Belgium’s attacking display in the opening round was concerning. Against Egypt’s compact defense, Belgium managed just two shots on target throughout the match. Kevin De Bruyne’s passing from midfield was repeatedly cut out by Egypt’s help defense, while Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard lacked consistency in their wing play. Although Romelu Lukaku added a focal point in the box after coming off the bench, the overall attacking tempo remained too slow. Belgium exposed a clear weakness in breaking down deep defenses in the first round — when opponents drop into a low block, their attack lacks pace and vertical penetration. Iran drew 2-2 with New Zealand in the opening round. Although they failed to win, their efficiency in attack deserves credit. In transition, Mehdi Taremi and Sardar Azmoun repeatedly tore through New Zealand’s back line with their pace and combination play. Iran have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches, showing excellent resilience against stronger sides. Their tactical approach is very clear — defend and counter, compress space, and use Taremi’s hold-up play and pace on the wings to create danger. For this match, the Asian handicap opened with Belgium as a one-goal favorite and was later adjusted in live trading to Belgium -1.25. The home side’s odds moved up from the low range of 0.74-0.79 to the higher range of 0.95-1.02. The line movement itself reflects bookmakers’ confidence in Belgium, but the key issue is the odds trend — after the handicap was raised, the home odds did not fall; instead, they rose, with several bookmakers showing high odds above 1.00. Given Belgium’s need for a big win, bookmakers had every reason to lower the odds below 0.90 to reduce payout risk, but they did not do so. This suggests a large amount of market money has poured in on Belgium, while bookmakers have not used lower odds to control their liability. In the European odds market, the home win was gently adjusted down from 1.28-1.30 to 1.25-1.28, the draw was raised from 4.50-5.00 to 5.00-5.50, and the away win surged from 7.50-8.00 to 8.50-9.00. The drop in the home-win price was limited, and the rise in the draw price does not fully rule out the possibility of Iran taking a result. Overall, Belgium are the likely winners, but the margin may only be one goal. Iran’s counterattacking efficiency and defensive discipline are enough to keep them within the handicap in a deep line. Asian handicap recommendation: Iran +1.25.