Match: Brazilian Serie A
Fixture: Grêmio vs. Fortaleza
Local kick-off time: 20:30 on July 29
Venue: Arena do Grêmio
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Summary of both teams' strength:
Although Grêmio have not been outstanding in recent matches, their home performance is quite impressive. They remain unbeaten in their last 10 home games across all competitions, boasting strong home resilience. Even against stronger opponents, those teams struggle to gain an advantage at Grêmio’s home ground. The team mainly deploys a 4-2-3-1 formation, strengthening the connection between midfield and defense while enhancing passing and cutting combinations in wing attacks. They lean more towards wing play in matches, using the speed advantage on the flanks to break through the opponent’s defense.
Fortaleza have performed poorly this season, winning only one of their last 10 games across all competitions, with the previous seven ending in defeats – many of which saw them thrashed by large margins. The main issue lies in their abysmal defensive performance: they often make mistakes in short passing combinations, allowing opponents to intercept the ball and take shots. In 6 matches, they conceded nearly 2 goals per game, and such consistent errors inevitably lead to goals against them.
Handicap prediction:
Grêmio -0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Home win + Draw (European Odds)
Predicted scores: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0
Predicted total goals: 0, 1, 2
Changes in betting data:
Initial European odds for this match are set at 2.20-3.30-3.10. The Asian Handicap offers Grêmio a -0.25 advantage, primarily due to Fortaleza’s low away status. However, under this handicap, Grêmio still garners some trust.
Additionally, looking at their last 10 head-to-head matches, 80% ended with a low score (small total goals), with only 2 matches seeing more than 3 goals. Asian bookmakers currently set the total goals line at 2.25 for this match. Fortaleza’s frequent away goals conceded make the total goals seem uncertain, but based on Grêmio’s home scoring efficiency this season, they are not enough to justify this total goals line. Therefore, this match is highly likely to end with a low score.
