In this World Cup group-stage opener, the extent of the handicap line retreat is quite alarming, and Cape Verde’s chances of covering the spread deserve close attention. First, look at the movement of the line. In the opening stage, several bookmakers initially priced Spain at -2.5, with some even opening at -2.5/-3, while the home side’s odds were concentrated in the relatively low range of 0.82 to 0.92. But as the match approached, the line clearly backed off. One bookmaker dropped from -2.5/-3 to -2.5, and the home side’s odds fell sharply from 0.92 to 0.78. At first glance, this kind of line retreat combined with lower odds seems contradictory, but in reality it suggests that bookmakers’ confidence in a Spanish blowout is weakening. More notably, several bookmakers held firm at -2.5, yet the home side’s odds were collectively raised from 0.82-0.88 in the opening line to 0.81-0.87, while the away side’s odds were compressed from the higher range of 0.90-1.00 to 0.96-1.08. The companies that moved the line also showed divergence: among those that upgraded from -2.5 to -2.5/-3, the home side’s odds instead surged to 1.01-1.03 from 0.82. This combination of a higher line with a significant rise in the home side’s payout indicates that the bookmakers are not genuinely optimistic about Spain winning by a wide margin. The fundamentals also offer clues in favor of the underdog. Spain have gone unbeaten in their last 10 matches, posting a strong record of 7 wins and 3 draws, but a closer look at their record against the handicap shows only a 30% cover rate. Their ability to beat a deep line has been rather weak. Against teams far inferior in quality such as Iraq and Egypt, they were held to dull 1-1 and 0-0 draws respectively. The pressure of the World Cup proper is very different from that of friendlies, and Spain tend to prioritize stability in their opening match, with few truly open, high-scoring games. In the first match of the previous World Cup as well, Spain faced a weaker opponent and only managed a narrow one-goal victory. Although Cape Verde are far below Spain in overall strength, they have lost only once in their last 10 matches, with 5 wins and 4 draws, giving them an unbeaten rate of 90%. They have managed to hold stronger sides such as Egypt and Iran to draws, and their resilience and defensive organization should not be underestimated. In a World Cup opener, Cape Verde’s goal will surely be to limit the damage, and their determination to sit deep and defend is beyond doubt. For Spain to break through a -2.5 handicap line, the difficulty only increases. Considering both the line retreat and Spain’s struggles in deep handicap matches, Cape Verde to cover the spread is well worth backing.