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Forma (30)
[Picks]Offensive and Defensive Analysis Ahead of the Coupe de France Final
432d ago
Más/Menos05/23 03:00Copa de Francia
DerrotaRC Lens
FT--
OGC Niza
Más-
Line2,5/3
Menos-
In the Coupe de France final, Lens and Nice meet at a neutral venue. On paper, Lens bring strong attacking firepower, having scored 66 goals in Ligue 1 this season, close to 2 per game on average; Nice, meanwhile, have shown clear defensive weaknesses, conceding 60 goals in 34 matches. Based on the numbers alone, the over looks like a good option.
But the total goals line is sending a different signal.
The opening line for this match was 2.5/3 goals, but close to kickoff several bookmakers had moved it down to 2.5, while the over price rose from the 0.84-0.90 range to a high of 0.95-1.00. Against the backdrop of Lens averaging 2.06 goals per home game and Nice conceding 1.94 goals per away game, 2.5/3 goals is a reasonable line. However, the drop to 2.5 combined with the rising over price suggests bookmakers are losing confidence in the over.
The nature of a cup final means the tempo is likely to be cautious. In the last 10 meetings between the two sides, seven have gone under, with an over rate of only 30%; in the most recent five clashes, four finished with no more than two total goals. Nice have also struggled for attacking efficiency lately, scoring just four goals in their last six matches, an average of 0.67 per game, which makes it difficult for them to pose a real threat to Lens's defense. Although Lens are a potent attacking side, against a compact Nice defense in a final, they may not be able to produce an easy high-scoring game.
