Aalesund are still winless at home, but that does not mean their matches have to turn into goal fests. Quite the opposite, in fact — this team simply does not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the opposition. Just look at their home record: four matches, two draws and two defeats, six goals scored and nine conceded. Sounds like the defense is nothing special? But on closer inspection, three of those six goals came in a single game (the 3-2 loss to Fredrikstad), while they managed just three goals across the other three home matches. In other words, Aalesund have been basically toothless in attack for most of their home games. Their approach is simple: nick one if they can, and if not, keep the score down and take the least bad result possible. Brann, on the other hand, look impressive — five away games, 15 goals scored, an average of three per match. But the issue is that five of those goals came in a single outing against Tromsø, while the other four away matches produced just 10 goals combined, or 2.5 per game. Still strong, but not quite as terrifying as it first appears. More importantly, Brann are missing five players tonight. Goalkeeper Dyngeland, forward Castro, winger Magnusson, midfielder Opsahl, and center-back Bøe-Kjæ— all are out. That is almost half of a starting XI gone. The handicap has already been adjusted from Brann -0.75 to -0.25, and the market has effectively put out the warning signs for them. The total has dropped from 3.25 to 3, while the over price has also drifted up. The message is clear: this one is unlikely to follow the kind of 5-0 or 4-1 script we saw last round. This looks more like a tense battle where the first mistake could prove costly. Three goals or fewer should do it.