Remove each attack’s largest scoring game as a sensitivity check: the remaining four contain 4 goals for Leones de Rosario and 4 for Mercedes. This is not a new forecast, but a check on dependence on one result. The quote is 2.00; excluding each side’s highest-scoring game leaves 4 goals for Leones de Rosario and 4 for Mercedes across four games each. I would reassess if the case for this price depended on that omitted result.
Newest-first completed scorelines: Leones de Rosario 1-2, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1, 1-1; Mercedes 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0. These results are completed matches only; they do not independently verify starting lineups, injuries or a tactical plan for the upcoming game. The recorded goals are 6 for and 5 against Leones de Rosario, versus 6 for and 2 against Mercedes. The position I can defend is Over 2 goals at 2.00. The careful case needs both a supported record and a price boundary.
The recorded goal counts do not establish match tempo or finishing quality. A changed market or material team news would invalidate this version of the thesis.
