The close-score test gives 2 games within one goal for SC Villa, 5 for Mbarara City FC. Narrow final margins are the counterweight to a decisive recommendation, not proof of its probability. One mismatch puts Under 3 goals at 1.95 on my list. The decisive mismatch must survive the quoted price; otherwise I pass. The quote is 1.95. A worse price is a different decision. The recorded goal counts do not establish match tempo or finishing quality. If the price no longer compensates for that gap, I pass.