My selective lean is Kelty Hearts to win at 5.25. The value condition has to be strong enough to survive an explicit doubt. The short record and current price must point in the same direction. Across five completed games each, East Kilbride are 3-1-1 and Kelty Hearts are 2-0-3. My doubt is that Kelty Hearts won 2 in this small sample; that is a reason to stay selective about the price, not to claim certainty. The other side recorded 1 draws, so I keep the opposing result within the range of plausible outcomes. At 5.25, I need more than a 19.0% gross hit rate to clear the quote; that is a price test, not my forecast. Five completed results cannot establish the next result or confirm the starting lineups. If the supporting price disappears, the correct response is to pass. I would rather pass on a weaker quote than turn a small five-game record into a stronger claim than it supports.