For CD Independiente Juniors against AD Nueve de Octubre, I take AD Nueve de Octubre to win at 3.10. Those results show 7 goals scored and 7 conceded for CD Independiente Juniors, compared with 8 scored and 5 conceded for AD Nueve de Octubre. AD Nueve de Octubre won 2 of its five completed games. That short record makes the price worth examining but is not a match probability. At decimal odds 3.10, the break-even threshold is about 32.3% before market margin; that number is a price hurdle, not a predicted win probability. I can be confident about the choice and still admit the weakness of a small sample. CD Independiente Juniors–AD Nueve de Octubre: if that balance shifts, I pass.