My read on Germany vs Paraguay is Paraguay +1.25. This is only a probability-based judgment from the data, not a guarantee of any kind. Matches can always deviate from expectations. In terms of motivation, Germany carry the label of “should advance,” but in knockout football that can sometimes turn into tension. Paraguay are completely different — they came through a group featuring Belgium, so psychologically they have nothing to lose. Their game plan will most likely revolve around slowing the tempo and dragging Germany into a grind of a positional battle. As the underdog receiving a deep handicap, there is naturally some margin for error. There are a few data points worth noting. Germany had very high possession in the group stage, but their shooting efficiency was not especially impressive, and against compact low blocks they often ran into resistance through the middle. For Paraguay, defensive discipline is their trademark, and the physical battles in midfield and the handling of aerial duels were tested many times in South American qualifying. From another angle, in Germany’s last five World Cup knockout matches, they have beaten the opponent by more than one goal only once, so their ability to cover the spread has not been particularly strong.