South Melbourne at home against Green Gully Cavaliers — I’m backing the hosts to cover a one-goal handicap here, pretty comfortably. First, the motivation. South Melbourne have been tearing through the league this year, and they’ve been especially dominant at home. Every time they return to their own ground, they come out flying, with quick wingers on the flanks and a towering presence through the middle, bombarding opponents from all angles and leaving them unable to breathe. Green Gully Cavaliers are a traditional side, but they’ve been poor on the road this year and tend to crumble when they run into a team with strong home momentum. Then there’s the numbers. South Melbourne are averaging well over two goals per home game, and their forward line links up superbly — bursting down the left, arriving in support on the right, with a very familiar and effective scoring pattern. Green Gully Cavaliers are conceding nearly two goals per away game, and their back line lacks pace, making them vulnerable to balls slipped in behind. On top of that, their fixture list has been tight lately, so fitness is another issue. With a one-goal home handicap, winning by two lands the full return, while winning by one is a push. That line is nothing much for South Melbourne. They often beat weaker sides by two or three goals at home, and once their momentum builds, they’re hard to stop. Green Gully Cavaliers will probably struggle to hold out for the first half hour before conceding, and once they fall behind and are forced to push forward, the space at the back will only get bigger.