Norway’s previous few tough matches have exposed their lack of cutting edge in breaking down compact, high-intensity defenses. And given the congested schedule of late, both managers will most likely prioritize a defensive approach and counterattacks. Once Norway slows the tempo, their control in midfield actually tends to drop. In a do-or-die game like this, neither side will dare to push forward recklessly, so it is likely to become a dull battle of attrition. That’s why I think it might be best to take a conservative view tonight—the under 2.5 line fits this kind of tense, suffocating contest better, and the score could end up very low-scoring.